Science
North Pole Sea Ice Minimum Third-Lowest Since 1979
Published September 19, 2009 @ 05:16PM PT
Watch this space...I'll be blogging all week, next week, from both the UN Climate Summit and related happenings, and the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh, in partnership with Grist and the Voice Project.
On Sept. 12, the sea ice cap covering the North Pole most likely hit its yearly low, according to federal scientists.
Poor ol' 2009 didn't quite make the record books: The sea ice did not recede to the record minimum of 2007. But it's still much reduced compared to historic averages.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, on Sept. 12 the ice covered 2.97 million square miles (5.10 million square kilometers ) of the Arctic Ocean. That's about 24% less than the average sea ice minimum from 1979 (when satellite measurements began) to 2000 was 4.17 million square miles (6.71 square kilometers).
The 2009 sea ice minimum extent was just under 1 million square kilometers below average. According to the NSIDC, this is the third lowest since the start of satellite measurements in 1979. The only two years with less sea ice were 2007 and 2008. The chart below illustrates the trends in context:
Does the slight upward trend indicate a cessation of human-caused climate changes? Very, very unlikely, unfortunately -- because there's a parallel trend of older, thicker ice melting and not returning. NSIDC researchers say that while the sea ice extent receded less far than in the past two years, the Arctic Ocean ice is now "dominated by younger, thinner ice, which is vulnerable to melting."
What are the non-human-propelled factors affecting the how much the sea ice shrinks and grows? As New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin wrote on his DotEarth blog this week,
...the small global network of ice, climate and ocean specialists trying to make sense of ice behavior at both poles are — as always — working to use each year’s data to refine their still crude models. Many readily acknowledge that the Arctic is an extraordinarily complicated system in which ice conditions are determined by winds, currents and both air and sea temperature. It is a system that can amplify either a human warming influence or a natural one, making the task of disentangling a signal of human influence from other forces exceedingly tough.
In short, it's complex. Although it's important to note: Given both the overall speed of the human-propelled global warming, and its intensified affects in the Arctic, it's very, very unlikely that there are any natural trends in the works that would spark a major recovery of Arctic sea ice. Bummer.
In an ideal world, this degree of unknowns would argue for a taking a more truly conservative approach to the climate, by slowing the human-propelled greenhouse gas pollution that's contributing to Arctic complexity and fragility.
Something to keep in mind in the coming weeks and months of international climate negotiations -- from next week's UN Climate Summit in New York City to December's formal treaty talks in Copenhagen.
Waking Up Our Leaders to Climate Change: Global movement demands action
Published September 18, 2009 @ 04:08PM PT
Nowhere in the world are the effects of global warming more plain than in the Arctic. Glaciers across Greenland, for instance, suddenly started disintegrating and gushing melt-water into the ocean at an alarming rate in the first half of this decade.
The melt accelerated so much that scientists began to fear that the entire Greenland ice sheet — which contains enough water to raise sea levels as much as 20 feet — might be in serious trouble.
A Greenpeace expedition to the Arctic has been searching for clues that might explain this unprecedented meltdown. The Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise made history when it successfully navigated the entire length of the Nares Strait in mid-June — a time of year when the strait is typically impassable because of sea ice. The crew has sent back some startling images of the impact global warming is having on the Arctic, while independent scientists onboard have confirmed that warmer water from Southern latitudes was not only making its way up to Greenland’s glacial fjords but also lapping at the glaciers themselves, contributing to their decline.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced today that 2009 saw Arctic summer sea ice recede to the third lowest extent ever recorded. The agency restated its warning that the Arctic could be free of sea ice altogether in the summer as soon as 2030.
Polar bears have been listed under the Endangered Species Act because their crucial sea ice habitat is vanishing; Pacific walrus are now being considered for listing as well. Milder winters have caused some sea geese to stop migrating South for the winter.
Even with these danger signs in the Arctic, world leaders have made no significant progress addressing climate change, largely because they’re waiting for the US to lead the charge. Will we come through? The Guardian recently published a very troubling report that far from getting out in front on climate policy, the Obama administration has made new proposals that would massively restructure the treaty to be discussed at this December's international climate negotiations. "Sources on the European side say the US approach could undermine the new treaty and weaken the world's ability to cut carbon emissions," reports the Guardian.
So where is the global movement demanding that President Obama and the rest of the world’s leaders take bold action?
A new global climate action campaign, TckTckTck.org, aims to be that movement. Representing a coalition of groups, including Greenpeace, Oxfam, Avaaz.org, Christian Aid, 350.org, and many, many more, TckTckTck has already logged over a million signatures of people who have joined together “to show world leaders that the support for a fair, ambitious, and binding climate treaty is diverse, broad, and crosses borders.”
In addition to aggregating signatures from concerned citizens the world over, the TckTckTck.org website has some pretty cool and useful features to help you stay on top of the news, get active, and organize your own circle of friends and family. The site features a “major moments” calendar that lays out the key dates from now until the Copenhagen climate talks, as well as a lot of excellent content, such as the climate "Campaign Stories" blog.
It also features a tool really like: the climate orb – an interactive globe that lets you explore people’s stories about how climate change is already effecting their lives.
Signing on with TckTckTck is a great way to show world leaders that there is broad support among citizens of Earth for bold action on global warming. But if you prefer to act a little closer to home (and right here on Change.org no less!), you can sign this petition by Earthjustice calling on the Obama adminstration not to open the newly ice-free Arctic to drilling.
Or you can sign the United Nations Foundation’s petition calling on President Obama to support a strong international climate treaty in Copenhagen.
Or if it's real-world action you prefer — and you can be in Pittsburgh next week — you can join the climate contingent at the People's Uprising march that will take place Sept. 24, during the meetings of the Group of 20 (G20) major world economies.
As I wrote last week, inaction is the biggest danger we face: Absolutely nothing will happen unless you get out there and make your voice heard. Whether it's signing a petition, making a phone call, or marching, join the global movement demanding fast, bold and effective action to stop global warming.
Super Typhoon Choi-wan Hits 160 mph
Published September 16, 2009 @ 07:53PM PT
Above: Super Typhoon Choi-wan on Sept. 15, 2009. Credit: NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center.
Terrible beauty: Super Typhoon Choi-wan is currently the strongest storm on the planet. The monster storm is sweeping westward across the Pacific with sustained winds of 160 miles per hour (with gusts up to 315 mph) toward Japanese islands to Tokyo's south.
It's not aiming for any major population centers, but is still remarkable for being over 1,000 miles wide, and the strongest of this year's Pacific typhoon season.
A team from Japan's Nagoya University and the country's Meteorological Research Institute say that even fiercer superstorms become more and more likely after 2050, if we don't curb global warming.
If the Earth's ocean surfaces warm by about 3 deg. C from pre-industrial levels over the next century (a scenario explored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), a super typhoon stronger than Hurricane Katrina could hit Japan some time after 2050, these researchers announced last week. Such extreme superstorms could blow at sustained ground winds of 180 mph.
The world's major industrial nations have jointly agreed to keep the Earth's warming below 2 deg. C. by the end of the century...but have yet to make clear exactly what steps they'll take to make sure of that. And in any case, most climate experts have said they have no faith that the political efforts being made at the moment can possibly hold warming back from less than a disastrous 4-5 deg. C by century's end.
(August's sea surface temperatures were the warmest in at least 160 years.)
What's it going to take to change this probable future into a disaster averted?
Mental Health Break: Spectacular new images from space
Published September 12, 2009 @ 07:25PM PT
The space-based Hubble Telescope got a $1 billion-plus revamp thanks to a complex repair mission by shuttle astronauts, back in May.
It is already returning the investment with spectacular new images and data that will fuel years of scientific research and discovery. The images are of far-off galaxies, a star cluster, and, above, this dramatic "butterfly" nebula, officially named "NGC 6302."
The "wings" are in fact "roiling cauldrons of gas heated to more than 36,000 degrees Fahrenheit... tearing across space at more than 600,000 miles an hour," according to the Hubble team, "fast enough to travel from Earth to the Moon in 24 minutes!"
At the center of this violent storm is a dying star, which was once about five times the mass of our Sun.
Hubble's new Cosmic Origins Spectrograph also detected the building blocks of life -- oxygen, nitrogen and carbon -- amid the matter being spewed into space by this nebula and other cosmic features, including a galaxy (Markarian 817) being pulled into a supermassive black hole. It's the first time we have had an instrument in space sensitive enough to pick up signs of this matter.
"We believe that most of the matter in space is actually wispy filaments between the galaxies," James Green of the University of Colorado told journalists at a news conference. "The elements of life are being produced in stars ... but they are also being distributed through the cosmos."
Check out more of the Hubble's latest images at Hubblesite.
Image credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble SM4 ERO Team
Fatalistic Friday: 'We're waiting for our climate speech, Mr. President', major Arctic melt, more
Published September 11, 2009 @ 02:37PM PT
Above: Pacific walrus swimming to shore at an Alaskan beach. The Obama administration may give the species special protections under the Endangered Species Act, because it is losing critical habitat to global warming. Source: US Fish and Wildlife Service.
Presented for your amusement: our semi-regular horse pill of bad news about climate change. Look out -- there's a signpost up ahead that reads...Fatalistic Friday.
Climate Activists Wait for an Obama Speech to Call Their Own: As President Obama delivered his health care speech this week, climate change activists said they were waiting patiently for a similar rhetorical moment. While there is broad acceptance about the president's decision to push global warming to the back burner for now, Obama needs to grant climate change equal attention on prime-time television in coming months, they say.
With less than 100 days until the Copenhagen talks begin, time is running out. "I don't have a problem with him keeping the climate powder dry for now," said Frank O'Donnell, president of Clean Air Watch, which is pushing to strengthen global warming legislation that passed the House in June. "But, ultimately, it may take a big goosing from the White House to achieve some resolution in the Congress." (ClimateWire)
Arctic ice meltdown greater than average again in 2009: The Arctic sea ice has retreated to the third-lowest level in recorded history -- the fourth time in the past five years that the annual summer meltdown has been far greater than average. The ice has already diminished this year to less than 5.3 million square kilometres, with a week or two of melting left to go. The all-time biggest retreat was recorded in 2007 at 4.13 million square kilometres, and the 2008 retreat fell just short of that record. (CanWest News Service)
Effects of Arctic warming seen as widespread: The Arctic Circle has been warming faster than other latitudes. And the impacts are showing on the region's plants, birds, animals and insects. "The Arctic as we know it may soon be a thing of the past," Eric Post, an associate professor of biology at Penn State University, said in a statement. (Associated Press)
Tusk! Walrus May Join Polar Bear on Endangered List
Published September 09, 2009 @ 03:18PM PT
Even as the summer Artic sea ice is receding towards another near-record low, the Obama administration has announced that it will consider the Pacific walrus for endangered species protections.
Yesterday, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) announced that it was opening a 60-day review period to determine whether the walrus should be listed under the Endangered Species Act.
It took the agency a mere year and a half to make it to this moment. The Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) first petitioned the FWS to protect the Pacific walrus in early 2008. After the agency failed to act, the group then sued the Bush administration in December; in May, a federal judge approved a settlement between FWS and CBD that the agency would make its initial finding on the petition by September 10.
Inhofe Watch: Oklahoma senator's torture denial
Published September 03, 2009 @ 04:24PM PT
Senator Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) is the Congressional standard-bearer for global warming denial.
(And the recipient of hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions from the oil, gas, and utility industries.)
Yesterday, he demonstrated that his is an equal opportunity capacity for self-delusion, when he told constituents at a town meeting that there has "never been a case of torture" at the Guantanamo Bay prison camp.
If only this were true. But it's just as accurate as Senator Jim's claims about global warming, which is to say not accurate at all. The the Center for Constitutional Rights, International Committee for the Red Cross, and the CIA itself have all documented the use of torture by American interrogators against detainees at the Guantanamo Bay prison.
It's unlikely that U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder would have bucked the wishes of his boss, President Obama, and appointed a prosecutor to investigate abuses of detainees by the CIA, if there were no case to be made.
What's this got to do with global warming? It goes to credibility.
