No Climate Bill Until 2010 at the Earliest
Published November 04, 2009 @ 01:16PM PT
Is Climate Change being put on the back burner? After Blog Action Day, 350.org's events recently, and all the conferences and gatherings in the run up to Copenhagen, the momentum may lead to domestic legislation passing anytime soon.
With Republicans boycotting the markup of a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee bill (can we call this the billibuster?) before it can even hit the floor, the hopes of a deal being done before Copenhagen now seems unrealistic. The committee could forge ahead despite the boycott but, but other committees still need to weigh in — and they aren't making any plans to do so yet.
Commerce Committee Chairman John Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) said on Tuesday that “Some people are talking about not doing it until after the 2010 election.” That would be a long time to wait, and would hardly show how serious America is about fighting climate change if it takes it that long to get legislation passed. Rockefeller is one of a handful of Democrats who may block legislation, fearing it would harm their coal-dependent economies. As a climate change representative for Algeria said this week, industrialized countries are too concerned with economic and political problems, and not sufficiently concerned about the damage that climate change is already causing to developing countries.
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It's silly to be passing new laws on emissions when the biggest and richest company, ExxonMobil, has all their old plants and infrastructure grandfathered and exempt from the Clean Air Act in the USA. It's the old stuff that is still running and leaking that creates huge volumes of emissions. I live on a 38,000 acre South Texas Ranch with ExxonMobil. They have leased the place since the 1930's -- it's still huffing and puffing away on old grandfathered plants. They not only pollute, they are wasteful. All the new production of ExxonMobil's JV partners requires that the partners process all the gas at ExxonMobil's 1950's King Ranch Plant -- another huge polluter. ExxonMobil leased almost 2,000,000 contiguous acres between Corpus Christi and the Rio Grande Valley by the 1940's -- they still control the area and use old junk. Regardless of new rules, XOM will be exempt. I made a website www.RanchoLosMalulos.com - you can see what a Texas XOM op looks like. We need to make the biggest polluter that can afford to improve do so. That would reduce emissions!
Posted by elizabeth burns on 11/04/2009 @ 02:41PM PT
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We're number 1!
Well, we were, China burns more than we do now. But they have a bit to go before they equal our accumulated (over a couple of centuries) contribution to the carbon dioxide load into the air, saying nothing of ancillary carcinogens coming home to roost in lungs near you.
We must stop burning as profligately because we burn, and have burnt, more than a billion Chines could match until last year. Except for low lying coastal areas the US won't suffer much. Isn't it good to no that with no more than a few states underwater we'll get off scot-free after a few nations drown in the next few decades. We caused the disaster but we won't suffer much. I admit I'll miss Disney World (the rest of Florida, too), but not as much as Bengalis will miss all of Bangladesh.
Posted by Edward Craig on 11/04/2009 @ 11:34PM PT
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This is all BS.This Year is one of the Coolist on record.All this is BS so are carbon out put is also heating up Marrs,Wake up and see what it is,a power take over and your TAX Money is to go to the UN who will line there pockets and AL Gore and suppose to raise up 3rd World Nations which we will meet on are way down some where around the middle and socialize the whole planet.Don't listen to this phoney hype read the studies done on this,not the ones they want you to see the hype idiots but real science.We go in cycles on this Rock.So if Cap and Trade passes you have not read the big trouble we as People in the US will be in.We will be the ones paying the whole bill on this,none from Russia or China and it will also go to line Al Gore's pocket and the Rothchilds.You Pay I won't.Thay got us in a hole now this will just help them to enslave us.Can't You See?
Posted by James Roberts on 11/10/2009 @ 05:49AM PT
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@ James Roberts: From the reference to the Rothschilds, I assume that the particular flavor of climate-change denialism you favor is LaRouche. Amid a barely literate and logically incoherent mudpile of borrowed fake facts and paranoid rhetoric, you manage to include one scientific fact: "We (by which I assume you mean the global ecosystem) go in cycles on this Rock." Yes, there are long-term cycles of heating and cooling on the planet. When Shakespeare was writing, for instance, there was a "mini Ice Age" in Europe: the ice was so thick on the Thames in January that they held fairs and built bonfires on it.
James, the thousands of climate scientists who have over the last three decades been patiently exploring the issue of human-generated global warming *know* about these cycles. You learn about them in climate-science grad school. Models developed over twenty years ago with the relatively primitive software and hardware then available took the cycle data into account. Today, the computer models are several orders of magnitude more precise, running on much faster machines with far more data.
What you don't understand, James, is how science works. A large group of people with PhDs can't just be hired by Al Gore or the Rothschilds to fake up a bunch of data and get it published in reputable journals in their field. Science works like this:
1) some scientists formulate a hypothesis (explanation) about a set of facts based on evidence from observation or experiment (or sometimes, as in theoretical physics, just math);
2) they write a paper with their results and send it to a journal, where it is reviewed by a panel of other experts in the field (peers) for plausibility;
3) once the paper is published, it is read by other scientists in the field, who test the results with more observation and more experiment;
4) if the hypothesis continues to explain the set of facts well and stands up well under all that testing, it becomes an accepted theory and is used to generate more research.
This is precisely what has happened with the hypothesis of human-generated climate change. It has been tested and re-tested and mountains of evidence from weather records to ocean acidity to Arctic ice cores have been explored, confirming the theory. At this point the theory of human-generated global warming is as solid as a theory in the higher-level sciences (stuff like meteorology, population biology, paleontology, etc.) gets.
So James, you are faced with a choice: either this entire process in the case of global warming is a fake, conducted with the collusion of thousands of scientists all around the world--or it it is real, and you have been listening to nonsense and lies from a sleazy coalition of carbon-industry front groups, scientific contrarians, and right-wing crackpots. The sole real purpose of all this smoke-blowing is to slow legislation that will affect the bottom lines of coal and oil companies and the utilities who are heavily invested in plants running those fuels.
Energy is the single largest business on the planet. Right now, 80% of the world's energy comes from the burning of fossil fuels. The companies that dominate this market are the world's most powerful corporations. They are spending tens of millions of dollars a month (check the figures if you like) to defeat meaningful curbs on their emissions. Yet they have utterly failed to buy the overwhelming majority of climate scientists, who are sounding the alarm ever more loudly about the accelerating catastrophe we are already in.
Yes, James, I can see. And that is what I see.
Posted by Adam Cornford on 11/10/2009 @ 08:47AM PT
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@ James, P.S. No, this year is *not* one of the coolest on record. It is one of the hottest, and this entire decade has had average global temperatures higher than those in the previous decade, which were higher than those of the 1980s. This "coolest year on record" thing is a classic case of a factoid--a false statement repeated by so many people whether by laziness or deliberate mendacity that it becomes a "fact." Another instance of that with which you may be familiar is the claim that Saddam Hussein was in some way involved in the events of 9/11. The Bush Administration initially tried to claim that this was the case based on information from a CIA informant that they already knew to be false. When the allegations were exposed as a sham, they moved to another fake reason to invade Iraq: Saddam's alleged possession of WMDs. This gave them just enough cover in the UN and the US Congress to undertake the invasion of Iraq. When that lie was exposed also, they said they were invading Iraq to bring its people democracy. And now they have what they really came for: the oil.
This disgusting process, which has resulted in the losses of thousands of American lives and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives, is a fairly precise parallel to the way climate-change denialism has operated. First comes the claim that the earth isn't really getting warmer. When it is shown conclusively that average global temperatures are spiking, the claim is that this is part of a natural cycle. When this claim too is debunked, the current move seems to be to argue that we are (contrary to all available evidence, including the rapid melting of the polar icecaps) in a "cooling period" that only these privileged genius contrarian scientists are able to perceive.
But the point is this: as the facts come rolling in, the denialists dance on them like logs in a river, trying to stay out of the rough water of reality. But they are being swept away. All that stands between the human species and a less terrible catastrophe is the naked power and money and greed of the fossil-fuel companies, with no real justification other than the threadbare notion that trimming their vast (and government-subsidized) profits will "hurt the economy"--as if global warming, already causing mass starvation and public health crises around the planet, will not hurt it, and us, ten thousand times more.
This is all becoming very easy to see if you're willing to look.
Posted by Adam Cornford on 11/10/2009 @ 09:05AM PT
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The game will only change if two things happen. The first is that--as in the health-care debate--the Dem base gets fired up to apply pressure from below and just won't dial it back. The second thing is that it becomes apparent to a lot of investors just how huge the opportunities are in solar energy (concentrated thermal as well as photovoltiac), in the smart grid, and in energy storage. Where money goes, Congressional votes will follow. A powerful cleantech lobby will weaken the currently overwhelming relative clout of the fossil-fuel lobbies. There is a third less crucial but still important variable: more GOP Senators following Lindsay Graham on the road to something resembling climate-change sanity and supporting a version of the bill that allows cap-and-trade in exchange for more offshore drilling and subsidies to nuclear power. I don't worry much about the nuke side of it, because as Al Gore pointed out recently on Rachel Maddow, "the markets" aren't interested in nukes anyway. They take too long to build, they only last 40 years at most, and they've never made a real profit for anybody--period. The coastal drilling rights suck, but they can be repealed later. Meanwhile Obama has just put $3.4 billion into smart-grid development. Hopefully that will help trigger a serious flow of capital into the needed infrastructure--cheaper batteries, better power transmission (HVDC), and the IT layer that manages the huge amounts of data that have to flow with the current.
Posted by Adam Cornford on 11/08/2009 @ 10:16AM PT
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