Global Warming 101: Politics, Economics, Culture, Action
Published October 03, 2008 @ 12:24PM PT
Nearly every action we take on the average day, from cooking eggs for breakfast, to watching "Project Runway" after dinner, relies upon power created by burning carbon-rich petroleum products or coal. Burning these fossil fuels releases heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, in amounts far greater than what would occur naturally.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from under 300 parts per million just before the Industrial Revolution, to 385 ppm today, and it's still rising. By current accounts, the world is sending more than 34 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year into the atmosphere. And the United States, with approximately 4 percent of the world's population, consumes about 25 percent of the world's oil, and until very recently was the world's largest greenhouse gas polluter.
The amount of heat trapped by these gases has risen to the point that the planet's overall surface temperature is rising. And this is de-stablizing the climate -- the overall weather conditions we expect to experience in any given place over a human lifetime -- which have guided how we grow our food, and where and how we build our towns and cities.
Global warming is already transforming some regions -- most dramatically the Arctic. Still, many experts believe that if we fundamentally re-invent how we generate energy, and do it fast enough -- 2015, 2030, and 2050 are commonly used benchmarks -- we can re-stabilize the climate and avoid the worst.
Happily, there are many options for clean energy: solar and wind power; geothermal projects; harnessing the kinetic energy of ocean waves and underwater currents; creating fuel from plant materials ("biofuels") instead of petroleum; and more. One challenge is to implement these technologies at scales that will support both the countries that have already industrialized, and those that are industrializing now.
Another would seem to be cost: dirty energy has long been cheap energy, while many clean energy technologies will need years to recoup their costs. How can clean energy compete?
One way is to change how we do our accounting to calculate the benefits of the natural environment -- "ecosystem services" -- as well as the cost of pollution, and factor them into how we price energy. Take the air we breathe: Airborne soot (one byproduct of burning coal and gasoline) both causes and intensifies asthma. American children lose over a million school days a year to asthma, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services -- which also means medical bills, and parents not going to their jobs. One study concluded that in 2004 alone, parents of children with asthma lost around 15 million work days.
It's true that re-invention how we make and use energy is an immense task: fossil fuels are at the foundation of modern industrial civilization, and over the past half-century have become crucial to industrialized agriculture as well . Still, much of America's inaction can be blamed on the automotive and oil industries -- wealthy and powerful for decades thanks to the energy status quo -- and their political allies.
Climate change remained very low on the public radar through the 1990s and into the early 2000s, even though a lot was going on around the world: An agreement to study and act on global warming was created at the United Nations "Earth Summit" in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Participants in a subsequent meeting in Kyoto in 1994 created an action plan -- the Kyoto Protocol -- which set greenhouse gas limits participating nations, and timetables for meeting them.
The Kyoto Protocol -- the most far-reaching environmental treaty in history -- was adopted by nearly all the world's industrialized nations on July 25, 2001. The U.S. has never ratified the treaty, however. While voicing support for Kyoto, the Clinton administration never threw any real weight behind ratification, thanks largely to domestic realpolitik concerns. The second Bush administration, which never supported ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, has termed it "fatally flawed" agreement because it did not cap carbon emissions from developing nations, including up and coming powerhouses like India and China, even as it imposed such caps and thus potential economic harm on the United States. ( Hot Air Over Kyoto, a 2002 article by former Senator Timothy Wirth, describes the politics of global warming in the late-Clinton/early-Bush eras.)
Over the past decade, even proponents of carbon caps have become more vocal in criticizing the Kyoto agreement, saying its mandates are not ambitious enough to make any real difference to global warming. With the accord expiring in 2012, an international effort is already underway to draft a new global warming treaty by the end of 2009.
However, despite years of federal inaction, the United States may finally be ready to step into line -- and maybe into leadership -- on taking action against global warming, because in the past few years, the politics of global warming have been transformed:
States have stepped into the federal void: 850 mayors in 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have voted to support the Kyoto Accord, representing nearly 80 million citizens. Many states have formed regional initiatives to cut carbon emissions, such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which recently held limited carbon allowance auction.
2008 has even witnessed a rare Congressional debate on a global warming bill, widely considered a prelude to regulating carbon emissions in the next presidential administration.
Increasingly, business and corporate leaders have been taking stock of both the international support for climate action, and growing understanding of climate risk. Some are calling on the federal government to end regulatory uncertainties and enact carbon regulations.
Thanks to factors as varied as nationwide food contamination scares and eco-conscious celebrities, "green" has surged into the mainstream consumer economy. Car dealers can't stock enough hybrid gas-electric cars, and organic is the fastest-growing sector of the food industry. Target sells organic cotton bed sheets, and Home Depot is stocking certified sustainably harvested timber. People are even greening their sex lives.
The Hurricane Katrina disaster in 2005 and its aftermath also primed the public to acknowledge the intensifying climate crisis. Although it's not scientifically possible to find a direct correlation between global warming and Katrina's destructive power, the storm ripped the veil off our vulnerability to extreme weather (especially when compounded by mismanagement, corruption, or human error). And the conditions that created Hurricane Katrina fit scientific models of global warming that forecast greater storm intensity due to warming surface sea water.
Former Vice President Al Gore strode into the mass culture opening created by surging green consumerism and Hurricane Katrina with his 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth. The film brought Gore's slick and informative presentation about global warming, which he had been giving live for years, to a national audience. Promoted largely through a well-executed word-of-mouth campaign and good reviews, An Inconvenient Truth kicked off a national, public debate about the country's global warming policies. The film went on to win two Oscars, and has become the fourth-highest grossing documentary film since 1982.
Now activists (including Gore himself), bloggers, political leaders, business leaders and entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and even a reformed oil man are trying to seize the moment to bring about an energy revolution, and political change.
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons
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What a concise and wonderful post. This is a great resource for those wishing to educate themselves on the issue of global warming.
Posted by Michael Todd on 10/11/2008 @ 11:23PM PT
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From Roy Spencer,
"...our worries that global warming is manmade are directly related to how much faith we have that natural climate variations (for instance, a small decrease in low-level cloudiness) are not substantially contributing to our current warmth. Some scientists who believe in manmade global warming have asked me, "But what else could be causing the warmth?" Note that this is arguing, not from the evidence, but from a lack of evidence."
Posted by Phil Rautine on 11/08/2008 @ 06:50PM PT
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Michael, glad you enjoyed the post -- sorry it's taken me a while to acknowledge your comment.
Phil, sorry, but Dr. Spencer is incorrect. Scientists are not arguing from lack of evidence that human activities are causing global warming, just because he says they are. They are arguing from an overwhelming amount of evidence -- changes to the climate and to conditions on the surface of the Earth -- for which the single best explanation is human-caused greenhouse gas production.
Global warming is not about "belief" -- it's not a religion. It's about facts.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 11/20/2008 @ 06:54PM PT
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i love the people that thiink global warming is occuring. Just becsue it is warm out in january for a few days doesnt mean that our planet is warming. Its called weather patterns in our atmosphere. Also CO2 is rising in the world because our oceans are releasing huge amounts of it since our planet has been warming for the past 14,000 years (C02 lags 500 years behind that of ocean tempetures. I do belive that we need to get more efficent in our energy use and also prevent Enviromental issues like deforestation, and polution. But people need to stop this bullshit about C02.
Posted by Steve Scherer on 01/12/2009 @ 07:17AM PT
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Steve, it's great that you are aware of issues like stopping deforestation and pollution and energy efficiency.
How climate and weather interact, and how climactic changes manifest themselves, are a lot more complex than it being "warm out in January for a few days," as you point out.
Essentially, there is a lot of immediate noise in the bigger signal. The current weather, warm or cold, is the noise; the overall warming of the climate is the signal. In coming years, the signal is going to get stronger and overwhelm the noise.
The "CO2 lags, not leads" point is similarly imprecise -- it's correct to a point, but only to a point. When we look at the climate record on the scale of thousands of years, there is evidence that temperatures rose after the planet's orbital cycles brought on some surface warming, and that CO2 rises followed.
However, that's much too crude a scale to use to get really useful information for how CO2 and global temperature interact. If you get into finer grained detail -- into decades and centuries rather than millennia and eons -- CO2 and temperature rose in tandem most of the time. And by most, the evidence points to nearly all.
I'd love to see you do some research with an open mind, on the difference between weather and climate for instance. The blog realclimate.org, for instance, is written by climate scientists actively working on figuring out how the climate is changing. It can be a dense read, but well worth the effort.
Here's how one of the RealClimate contributors explains the lag/lead issue:
"This is an issue that is often misunderstood in the public sphere and media, so it is worth spending some time to explain it and clarify it. At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.
"Does this prove that CO2 doesn't cause global warming? The answer is no.
"The reason has to do with the fact that the warmings take about 5000 years to be complete. The lag is only 800 years. All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data."The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming."http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=13
It's complicated. That complexity creates a lot of uncertainty about how things are going to change in the future, which can be off-putting; we'd all prefer simple solutions. But changing climate ain't simple, and that's what we have to deal with.
This blog doesn't exist to debate the reality of global warming, though. That debate is over. Here we are discussing what to *do* about global warming.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 01/12/2009 @ 08:59AM PT
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Emily,
"I'd love to see you do some research with an open mind,..." and "That debate is over. Here we are discussing what to *do* about global warming."
A contradiction? Open mind and the debate is over?
Shouldn't a coercive approach to a solution, of a problem arrived at by consensus, that will most likely impact the ability of many human beings to survive, be debated until there is absolute certainty as to the exact cause?
The climate is and has always been changing.
CO2 levels and global temperature have been higher before humans appeared on the scene.
How can deciding the fate of so many human beings be taken so lightly?
Posted by mike frick on 04/24/2009 @ 12:35PM PT
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I think a great added dimension to the energy/global warming issue is the growing idea that addressing these problems can also help solve our economic woes. Wouldn't it be nice to have a "twofer" . . . . I have been a sleeping environmentalist since the 70s (as it became unfashionable in the 80s & 90s). I think even Gore was advised against using it as a main issue of his 2000 campaign. I am sooooo excited to see another generation get interested and passionate about it, and I hope it is not too late. "Hot, Flat & Crowded" by Tom Friedman was a very good book . . . but I am sure there are many, many others.
Posted by Claudia Collier on 01/20/2009 @ 10:31PM PT
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I was an ecology concerned earth dayist in the 70's myself. Only then the 'scientific' concern was global cooling. I've since learned that it is not cool to be so arrogant as to know what is best for other individuals, to the point that they should be forced into something for their own good.
Posted by mike frick on 04/24/2009 @ 09:41AM PT
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I am so excited to see this posting and the recognition that the “Kyoto agreement mandates are not ambitious enough to make any real difference to global warming.”
Would you be interested in contributing to an international, intellectual, solution oriented discussion that will result in papers being submitted to the next round of Kyoto Protocol discussions later this year?
I'd like to invite everyone here to check out a live prototype of a course we're beta testing (but it is a "live" course with actual enrollees and faculty) via the "Penn LPS Commons," a platform that we hope will set new benchmarks at the intersection of online learning and social networking.
Discuss issues surrounding environmental policy and sustainability with students presenting a report on the subject at the UN's World Civic Forum in Seoul. No enrollment. No fees. The Commons is an open academic environment to exchange ideas with students, faculty and other interested participants. A critical concept to be leveraged via the Commons is to break the paradigm of exclusion and open windows of opportunity in the learning environment to participants beyond students enrolled in a particular course, program, or even university. The word “open” here applies to the concept that there will be open (free) access to the public to view course content such as lectures on YouTube and/or iTunesU, and to participate in faculty and student-led blogs, polls, and community discussion forums. This inaugural offering is a prototype of potential future offerings via the Commons.
Join the discussion today at: http://pennlpscommons.org/ We look forward to your active participation, feedback, and ideas!
Posted by Jennifer Maden on 02/02/2009 @ 02:19PM PT
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In Melbourne, we just had three days of 45 degrees Celsius in a row, breaking all records for the past 100 years. The train lines melted (no kidding). Islands in our region are sinking because of rising sea levels, and the local people have become climate refugees.
Please don't tell me global warming isn't happening.
The issue seems to be what's causing it, and what humans can do to stabilise the climate. I'm no scientist, but the environmental impact of various human activities throughout the 20th century seems to have something to do with it - these include land intensive activities like mining and deforestation, as well as energy intensive activities like transport, manufacturing and air-conditioning.
There are lots of complementary strategies that will help us to fix the problem.
Alternative energy technology is important (wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, but NOT nuclear) - fossil fuels (and uranium) won't last forever - we need renewables to ensure long term viability of our way of life (we DON'T need radioactive waste hanging around for countless millenia). This needs long term vision and planning, something our policy makers in government don't seem very good at.
So-called "clean coal" (where the carbon emissions from burning coal are captured and stored in an underground cave) is a myth. It would be expensive and entirely unproven, and it's many years away from becoming a reality. We already have the technology for carbon capture - it's called a tree.
Deforestation is responsible for massive carbon emissions - this includes both land-clearing (ie. destruction of the Amazon to graze cows and grow soy for factory farmed livestock), and ALSO conversion of native forest to plantations (replacing biodiverse old-growth forest with a tree farm). The latter problem doesn't get nearly enough attention from the media, but it's an important issue for us here in Australia (especially Tasmania), where wilderness is being annihilated every day, the sad irony being that companies responsible claim "carbon credits" for doing so. Pure greenwash.
I don't think carbon is the only problem, although it seems to be significant. I've heard it said somewhere that methane has a three times more potent greenhouse effect than carbon - the primary sources of methane seem to be livestock and decomposing vegetation. Reducing our consumption of animal foods would not solve the problem of climate change entirely, but I think it would help. I'm not saying everyone should necessarily become vegan (though it would be a more compassionate world to live in) - just that an occasional day without meat or dairy might make a difference. It might also help to solve world food shortages (it's disgusting much grain is fed to animals, mostly cattle, which could be given to starving human communities).
Mother nature is pretty tough, and she won't particularly care if humans become extinct because we make the planet uninhabitable. We're already on the way to making it much more uncomfortable for ourselves.
Posted by Campbell Macknight on 02/05/2009 @ 02:55PM PT
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Methane is a very destructive greenhouse gas. Still, since human activities produce far more carbon dioxide than they do methane, CO2 is the main human-propelled cause of global warming, and the more obvious target for reduction.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 02/09/2009 @ 10:35AM PT
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Thank you so much for this great post. It really helped me understand the crucial info behind this important issue.
Posted by Lucy Henderson on 02/18/2009 @ 11:16AM PT
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Those concerned about global warming are still ignoring the elephant in the room, population. The UN estimates conservatively that the U.S. per capita output of pollutants is 20 metric tons per year. At the current rate the addition of 300 million more people by the end of this century will add another 6 billion tons of pollutants annually. Even, if by some technological miracle we were able to cut the rate in half to that of Mexico, we would have made no progress on reducing the present unacceptable level. We, therefore, should begin a concerted campaign to force our representatives in Congress to pass tax and immigration laws designed to stabilize our population. A first step would be to limit legal immigration to no more than 200,000 per year and end chain immigrations that have a multiplier effect on the number admitted. Adults have their own lives in their own countries and must apply for immigration on their own rather than as a relative of other immigrants or citizens. Population-driven economic growth is ultimately unsustainable and makes the global warming problem exceeding difficult to solve. The UN should adopt a similar objective for the world and provide the family planning tools necessary to reduce the fertility rate of every country to the replacement level. No other aid should be provided until that goal is achieved.
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 03/01/2009 @ 09:59AM PT
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How is it helping with over-population to stop people going into your country? That will just control the population within your country, doing nothing to affect that of the world. It's not like greenhouse gases are coming only from the United States...
The only way to effectively (and ethically, not like China) control population growth is to teach responsible sex education to everyone in the world. If every person has knowledge of, and easy access to, condoms, birth control pills, etc., there will be significantly less unplanned pregnancies, and the population will become more sustainable. In the United States, half of all pregnancies are unplanned. That's ridiculous. In a country that calls itself civilized, teenagers need to be taught about birth control.
Posted by Lianne Lavoie on 04/16/2009 @ 01:45PM PT
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LIANNE , the more people the more gets used. this moron of a president we have wants to reduce dependency of oil. how do you do that when over 2 million people come in this country legally a year. and then the illegals. and yes , your right on birth control too. but it dont work that way no where. here , canada , europe etc... green house or poisionous gases come from nature. volcanoe , forest fires etc... those are far worse than auto emissions etc.. and that cant be prevented. just as the change of this earth. thats a proven fact.
Posted by steve brandt on 04/16/2009 @ 02:56PM PT
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What should the population of the earth be? If the world population is 'proven' to be excessive, how shall the excess be reduced? Who will determine as to who is among the excessive? Who shall decide these things?
Posted by mike frick on 04/24/2009 @ 09:52AM PT
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In reply to Mr. Johnson, I must say that it is an unfortunate reality that this country is undergoing a continuous process of eroding the rights of its citizens. The suggestions that we should stabilize population by promoting a program to control the birth rate, and stopping immigration, are policies that are not compatible with living in a free society. Of what importance is it that the climate get warmer if we lose our freedom!
Posted by Henry Solomon on 03/01/2009 @ 06:43PM PT
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Who knows what policies are compatible with living in a free society and which are not? People have shown some willingness to given up personal freedoms for the greater good like national security. Of course, some are willing to give up more than others. If we are to believe some of the worst potential outcomes of global warming, I think many of us would give some thought to that. Personal freedom is not an absolute; freedom is relative. Some have relatively more freedom than others as a result of various factors including their particular economic condition.
Our immigration laws are ample evidence that, as former U.S. Representative Barbara Jordan said, "It is both the right and the obligation of a democratic society to manage immigration in the national interest." If reducing the output of greenhouse gases is in the national interest then it follows that managing [not stopping] immigration is also.
It is a real stetch to equate managing immigration of foreigners to an erosion of the rights of citizens.
Similarly, programs already exist to control the birth rate; it's called family planning. Also we already have tax laws that govern the number of exemptions one is entitled to for children and others. I guess that means our freedoms are already curtailed for some who pay the extra taxes while others benefit from their sexual profligacy.
Shortsightedness is an epidemic. I am simply asking people to take the longer view and do what is right for America with only a gentle nudge from the government to create a disincentive for larger families and exercise a little tighter control on immigration.
I am surprised that these proposed actions in a good cause are seen as a significant erosion of the rights of citizens. It sounds as though we are in favor of curbing global warming as long as it does not impact us personally in any way whatsoever.
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 03/15/2009 @ 07:33PM PT
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Personally, I have not noticed any erosion of my personal freedoms. From a different perpective, that related to the indigent octo-mom, perhaps some erosion is entirely appropriate.
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 03/15/2009 @ 08:05PM PT
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When you say "who knows what policies are compatible with living in a free society and which are not?," it is important to attach exact meaning to the words you use. If you look at those words carefully you will see confusion about the meaning of the words “free society.” You imply that living in a free society is a good idea without knowing what freedom means—in your own mind it’s apparently an issue of majority rule. If the majority will determines what freedom is, then the end result is mob rule, the destruction of the individual by the majority vote, the tyranny of the majority. For what reason was the constitution of the US and the Bill Of Rights written if not to put a check on the majority for the protection of the individual. If freedom is just what people will accept relative to an abstract concept called freedom which no one can define, of what value is it? With such a view do you think that freedom and this country’s founding principles, which produced the greatest country in the history of the world, can continue to have a lasting existence? If you know American history then you know how difficult freedom was to achieve, and how easily it can be lost, and is being continually lost. The concept of individual rights is based on the right of each person to live in accordance with the requirements of human life, to live by the use of his own reasoning mind to earn his own living, trading with others to mutual advantage, protected by government from the use of force or fraud against him, in order to achieve his own happiness, without sacrificing himself to others or others to himself—in essence, that is what freedom means.
It would take too long for me to trace the history of the erosion of individual rights since the founding of this country, which your post seems to ask me to recognize as the standard operating procedure, of which global warming policy is just another step, in the long accepted process of continuing the destruction of a free society. However, with regard to immigration policy I do not agree that the threat of terrorists entering this country is a result of a policy of freedom of immigration. This country has always been a safe haven for immigrants seeking life in a free society, that is how my parents got here, and probably yours. The opportunity to live in a free society should be open to all people; it is the natural right of everyone to be free, wrong to prohibit it, and one of the reasons that this country achieved its greatness. With regard to family planning the same arguments apply—there is no basis of government involvement in family planning in any way; to the extent that it exists, it should be abolished. Just because, as you say, “our freedoms are already curtailed” does not mean that we should continue on the same path, regardless of the implications, but rather we should reverse course.
With regard to “Global Warming” you say “shortsightedness is an epidemic” and that it is a “good cause,” but is it? There is no scientific proof of man-made global warming, and there is a great deal of evidence in geological history to refute it. Why should the seemingly mass popularity of what is predominantly a scientific myth determine governmental policy and infringe further on our rights to the detriment of our standard of living, our need for energy independence from OPEC and Islamic fascism, and our national security?” I suggest that you check your premises about who is being “short sighted.”
Posted by Henry Solomon on 03/16/2009 @ 10:52AM PT
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Henry, that is a good post. Food for thought. The words "free" and "society" can be found in any dictionary but when one puts them together the meaning becomes less clear. Free means having personal liberty such as civil, political and religious freedom. But I suspect that Libertarians would have much broader ideas about those freedoms than others have. And I wonder what the anarchists would say about that.
The confusion about the mean of the words "free society" was exactly what I was referring to when I wrote "who knows..."
No, freedom does not mean majority rule to me. It means ones ability to go about daily living without having to worry about excessive constraints except those related to the potential infringement of the rights and freedom of others. But the rule of law is fundamental to all civilized societies and someone has to make those laws. The majority is charged with that responsibility with due regard for or consideration given to the rights of minorities. So the majority does play an important role in defining what is a free society and certainly some are more free than others depending on the power structure in each nation.
Freedom as defined by the majority within the framework of the constitution, bill of rights, etc. is what I am talking about not some mob rule run amok. When one speaks of the majority, one is not speaking of an undisciplined mob. That is a false and unfortunate comparison or analogy.
If some infringement of freedom is acceptable to the majority, that is simply a recognition of the trade offs that are sometimes necessary. It is not a question of giving up all freedoms. The proposition is too give up some, not necessarily permanently, to enable a greater good. You said something like if one loses his freedom, of what good is national security. National security has value in an of itself because without it one could very easily lose his freedom in many dimensions. However, if a minor loss of freedom is the price we must pay to preserve our remaining freedoms, that trade off makes good sense. It's not a question of all or nothing. This is not to say that we shouldn't be alert to unnecessary or inappropriate infringements and do what we can to void them.
Unfortunately, majority rule is severely impacted by special interest groups who frequent the halls of congress and have a much greater influence than is justified by their numbers. Congress is almost incapable of operating properly because of the heavy-handed influence of these special interest. We all know about the so-called corporate welfare and the many loopholes in the tax code. But how many know that La Raza received a $473,000 helping of pork in the recently signed Omnibus Pork Appropriations bill? That's a good example of a special interest group feeding at the public trough.
I have no problem with your elegant definition of freedom but each of the words in that definition also have a different meaning to different people.
Some would argue that under your definition the federal government should be reduced in size because its very existence tends to infringe on freedom. Some, as you are probably aware, have draw parallels between Obama and Hitler. These require a stretch of the imagination but I gather from reading about them that the greatest fear of those who voted against Obama is related to those parallels and the infringement of freedoms he seems to be prescribing and the potential for a one party system that could be the result. Not much protection there for the minorities.
I know about our immigrant past. Although my mother was born here, my father and grandparents weren't. But I believe "past" is the operable word in that overused phrase. Our country is totally different now than it was during the great waves of immigration up until the early 20th century. Or going back even farther, a vast, largely unsettled continent lay before the Founding Fathers and their immediate successors. Natural resources: land, water, timber, fish and game, and minerals seemed limitless at the time; now we know better. To cling to a long outdated policy and cliche about our immigrant past is totally unwarranted. Immigration was largely uncontrolled in the early days for good and substantial reasons, mainly the existence of the frontier and new land for the taking. Now that is gone and I see no relevance for the immigration policies of the past. I believe it is hard to argue that we should accept all who wish to come here without question. I believe to do so merely condemns them and us to a re-creation of the very conditions that led them to leave their homelands, poverty, joblessness, disease, wars and crime.
It may be the natural right of people to be free but they should be working to achieve that freedom in their own country. The U.S. cannot accommodate all who wish to come here regardless of perceived natural rights.
The government is already involved in family planning in a sense by granting tax exemptions for every child that is produced. Are you suggesting the same thing that I am, the reversal of that policy?
There seems to be a large quantity of information on global warming of a reliable nature posted here or elsewhere on change.org. Perhaps you should address your doubts to the editor Emily Gertz. I have nothing to add to her posts of scientific evidence. No one wants to needlessly infringe on our rights to the detriment of our standard of living but it is the preservation of our standard of living that is the main driving force behind my posts regarding population, pollution, and natural resources. It sounds as though you do not wish action on the global warming front to affect your standard of living but are quite willing to do so when it comes to immigration and tax policies. You can't have both ways.
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 03/16/2009 @ 01:05PM PT
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Gordon,
It is precisely, regarding ideas such as yours, that the US Constitution was written. Throughout the history of mankind, men have tried to devise a system that protected individuals from other individuals and mobs. To date, the principle of individual liberty, on which the US Constitution is founded, has proven to be an idea that has provided the greatest benefit to the human condition that the entire history of the world has ever seen. It is very doubtful that arrogant ideas that sacrifice the individual for the greater good, which every tyrant in history has used as an excuse to power, will be an improvement.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant -- and free ... it expects what never was and never will be." --Thomas Jefferson
Posted by mike frick on 04/24/2009 @ 10:09AM PT
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yes i read her stuff and it's no more than a speech out of al goofy gores book . her stuff is written just the same as the other gore followers.
Posted by steve brandt on 03/18/2009 @ 01:14PM PT
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This is nothing but propaganda. I have been reading and commenting on the other globalwarming.change.org blogs, and am very concerned by what I find. If some crazy wants to form a web site to push their wacko ideas, more power to them. But when its a government website, I have a right to expect balance. They use terms like "Global Warming Denier" to belittle the people that disagree with them. They openly discuss whether to even debate with us, since, as far as they are concerned, the discussion is done. When cornered by their half-facts they attack you personally. Then, when you defend yourself, they whine about ill-spiritedness. I have a right to expect better than this from an official website.
To those in charge here:
Please provide a more balanced and congenial tone in your blog entries. This will help promote civility, and might even convert a few who would otherwise be put off by the elitist tones. Despite your protestations, there are published papers, by plenty of scientist that do not agree with you, that deserve better than your automatic dismissal of their findings.
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 03/18/2009 @ 11:09PM PT
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Mr. Deckrow, Change.org is a privately held company and not affiliated with the US government.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/18/2009 @ 08:26AM PT
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Who is supporting earth hour 2009 tomorrow night
Toboa Energy Resources LLC
is a proud supporter
www.toboaenergy.com
Posted by Guy Chapman on 03/27/2009 @ 07:18AM PT
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Gordon, you misunderstand the concepts of freedom, rights, and the history of this country. The confusion in your use of concepts causes many self-contradictions in your post. I will try to answer you briefly, but what you really need to do is learn about the concepts that you use so freely, but don’t understand. If you seriously want to understand the issues you write about it is very important for you to read the writings of the novelist/philosopher Ayn Rand; in particular, I recommend reading her two major novels The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged.
For a discussion on the level of politics and economics, the place to start is her book Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal. Two of the most important essays from the book, “Man’s Rights” and “The Nature of Government,” are available on the website: www.aynrand.org/rights
I will make my comments in line with your post below:
-----------------------------------------------------------Henry, your rebuttal is a very eloquent but not entirely convincing. Does this make you a Libertarian? [No, I’m an Objectivist]. What is the function of government if not to both protect and infringe on our liberties one way or another as necessary? [It certainly isn’t to infringe on our rights!] How does one assure freedom without government to protect his freedom from those who would infringe upon it? [Correct]. You may indeed have the high ground when it comes to some idealistic definition of freedom which you characterize as objective. [Don’t you believe that holding to ideals is realistic?] You say that we have a system of checks and balances to protect our freedom but you complain that the objective and absolute rights protected in the Constitution are being eroded. How is that possible? [It’s possible because we have free will and the principles stated in the constitution are being willfully disregarded.] Were we sold a bill of goods in the Constitution such that our freedoms are not protected after all? [No.] Do presidents feel they can ignore the Constitution with impunity just as they choose what laws enforce? [They do, as does congress as we can see happening all through history and continuing today.]
Perhaps what this means is that there is no absolute, objective measure of freedom. [No. It does not. See my references above.] Perhaps all is relative. [If you believe that then you believe than all argument comes down to each person’s subjective opinion. Why discuss anything?] While I am no fan of big government, I believe it has some limited role in protecting whatever freedoms we think we have. [If it only has some role in protecting our freedom, then freedom cannot last—the role of government is to protect our freedom, not just have some role.] Does that role include the ability of government to enable one man to receive without working for what another man must work for without receiving? [No. I agree. It is not proper for government to do that.] Is that an infringement of the latter’s freedom? [Yes.] Does that role include the ability of government to allow more immigrants to enter this country thus infringing the freedom of those already here to enjoy the quality of life and standard of living they have become accustomed to? [That is a contradiction. Immigrants do not take away anyone’s freedom by coming here. We take away theirs by preventing it. A human being has a right to be free—his nature requires it.]
The Declaration of Independence says “…governments are instituted among men to secure the unalienable rights among which are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” The Constitution begins with “We the People of the United States” …for the purpose of securing “…the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity….” This seems to give sanction to governments and their functions and to limit the scope of the blessings of liberty to citizens. [No. I don’t see how you arrive at that conclusion. What is limited by the constitution is government power.] This is not only a logical interpretation of the phrase “we the people of the United States” but the implicit recognition that we cannot guarantee the blessings of liberty to anyone else – say for example, the people of Viet Nam or any others who may be unhappy in their homelands. [I agree that we cannot guarantee or be responsible for the lives of people in other countries, but if they want to live in freedom and they arrive on our shores, we cannot deny to them the right to live in freedom.]
The checks and balances were designed not only protect our freedom but to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority. I read that to mean that due regard must be given to the rights and the input of the minority but I don’t believe a tyranny of the minority should be permitted to supplant majority rule. [No. Of course not.] The tyranny of the minority be described as fascism or communism. [Democracy is the tyranny of the majority.] A minority’s effective use of special interest groups that know how to press the buttons of politicians enables the tyranny of the minority. [Yes. That is true, and that is what you are doing in the promotion of government action against man-made global warming.]
What if the majority were to do that? [That is also tyranny.] To restore freedom, I think that may be necessary. [How does the majority do that when they do not even understand that freedom isn’t relative--it's about inalienable idividual rights.] I feel my freedoms have been infringed more by the special interest groups than by the government. [The special interest groups use government to accomplish that. This is what you are supporting in this cause.] To the extent government allows itself to be unduly influenced by these groups, majority rule and democracy is thwarted and freedom is infringed. [Yes. That is all you will accomplish by trying to influence the government actions you espouse. You need to understand the difference between a democracy and a republic, which is what we are. There is no right for the majority to infringe on the rights of the minority.]
I will respond to your other points at a later time.The immigration lawyers descended on Washington recently to press the case for immigration reform. Knowing the reputation of lawyers as bottom-feeders, I find it hard to believe that this was an altogether altruistic lobbying effort on their part. They are already imagining all the income reform can produce for them if they are successful. [These comments have nothing to do with our discussion. Please read the above mentioned article: Man’s Rights.]
Posted by Henry Solomon on 03/30/2009 @ 01:10PM PT
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Gordon, This is my inline response to another of your posts:
[Gordon said,] The rights or freedoms you mention are extremely broad. The basic concept of each of these rights need not be seriously impaired or denied in order to pursue an acceptable tradeoff. [There is no tradeoff on individual rights—see references in my prior post.] Where does one person’s freedom impinge or infringe on another’s? It is rather clear that a criminal’s behavior in the exercise of his fundamental right to his own life always impinges on and infringes the freedom of others in the exercise of theirs. [There is no right to preserve one’s life at the expense of someone else—this is a contradiction.] So then, we have to back off from some sort of absolute definition of freedom. [Principles are absolute. That’s why they are principles. That is why we need them. When they are compromised, they are no longer principles. See references for full explanation.] The exercise of the fundamental right to one’s own life is okay as long as that exercise does not infringe on the rights of others. [Correct.] Now we are getting into deep water. When infringement does occur, as it inevitably will, it may not be so obvious who is the aggrieved party. [This is the reason that courts are needed; in order to resolve disputes among people, whether they are rational or otherwise.] Who will then decide that issue and who will decide the punishment? [The objective laws of a proper republican form of government and courts. Not a lynch mob and not special interest pressure groups, e.g. global warming supporters of governments infringement of rights.] A Libertarian lynch mob? [No lynch mobs of any kind.] A judge based on the law? [Yes.] A jury based on its interpretation of the evidence. [Yes.] A human rights advocate? [Legal resolutions must be done by the courts. Everyone else has free speech.]
Posted by Henry Solomon on 04/01/2009 @ 02:47PM PT
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[There is no trade-off on individual rights—see references in my prior post.] “So you say. Does that mean Ayn Rand is the final arbiter of such matters? Perhaps the way to look at this is through the concept of marginal utility. Each marginal bit of freedom removed is initially of little consequence but as successive amounts are removed, each becomes more valuable than the one before. And of course the cumulative effect is perhaps even more important. That is the real danger – that the denial of a series of unnoticeably small amounts of freedom could over time lead to the abolition of all freedom as in Nazi Germany. Is there a lesson there for global warming as well? A little warming here, a little warming there – a melting of the Greenland and polar ice caps, the shrinkage of glaciers, the cooling of the oceans, a rise of a few inches or feet of level of the seas, etc. may have a cumulative effect never before seen now that carbon dioxide emissions are at an unprecedented level.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:34PM PT
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[There is no right to preserve one’s life at the expense of someone else—this is a contradiction.] “I doubt there is one soldier in the world who would agree with you. This is easy to say if you have never been there and done that.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:37PM PT
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[Principles are absolute. That’s why they are principles. That is why we need them. When they are compromised, they are no longer principles. See references for full explanation.] “So if a principled man tells a white lie to spare others some pain, he is no longer a principled man?”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:38PM PT
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[ The confusion in your use of concepts causes many self-contradictions in your post.] “Although I am neither a historian nor a philosopher, I have studied both history and philosophy. Are you claiming, as a disciple of Ay Rand, to be the final and sole arbiter of the concepts of freedom and rights? Are you a historian or philosopher? What is it about the history of this country that I don’t understand?”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:40PM PT
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[...you really need to do is learn about the concepts that you use so freely, but don’t understand.] “In other words, a person cannot think for himself; he must allow others to think for him and accept the arguments and rationale of others regarding rights and freedom. Isn’t this exactly what you cautioned me against earlier regarding global warming?”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:42PM PT
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“I have some passing familiarity with Ayn Rand’s work and will do more to further acquaint myself with her reasoning. But it sounds as though I must not only read her works but accept as gospel truth everything written therein. Is she the only authority you accept regarding these concepts? How about Immanuel Kant, John Locke, Erich Fromm, John Stuart Mill and the other worldly philosophers? They have nothing of interest to say about this? How about Jesus Christ and Karl Marx?”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:43PM PT
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[No, I’m an Objectivist]. “The Objectivist party is the latest in a series of fringe parties to which no one pays particular attention. They are not widely known and have had no significant impact on American society. Libertarian Ron Paul came the closest to getting some attention but you see what happened to him; he was excluded from most of the debates. I most admire Rand for enraging the liberals while inspiring the conservatives. ‘Reason, individualism, and capitalism’ is not a bad platform but the word ‘reason’ is hardly universally understood. (I reason and you argue.)”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:44PM PT
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What is the function of government if not to both protect and infringe on our liberties one way or another as necessary? [It certainly isn’t to infringe on our rights!] “So you would have been adamantly opposed to the internment of the nationals of enemy nations during WW II even if that was necessary to prevent them from returning to their homelands and meeting our troops on some bloody battlefield or infringing in some more direct and immediate fashion on our rights and freedom. I believe the internment of foreign nationals from enemy countries during time of war is a well-accepted tenet of international law. Internment of citizens is quite another matter but was deemed to be in the national interest at the time. I don’t place much stock in the second-guessing about internment or the use of nuclear weapons that arose on long after the fact and continues to this day. Generally, these folks are merely out to make a name for themselves by being controversial or contrarian. One can often get a lot of mileage out of a few scattered facts and large quantities of B.S.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:47PM PT
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[Don’t you believe that holding to ideals is realistic?] “Of course, ideals are wonderful but they are more honored in the breach than in their observance or achievement. They are aspirational but achievable only in a microcosm of time and place. I am not arguing that they should be discarded.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:48PM PT
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Do presidents feel they can ignore the Constitution with impunity just as they choose what laws enforce? [They do, as does congress as we can see happening all through history and continuing today.] “Sooo, where does that leave us vis á vis our precious absolute freedom and inalienable rights?”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:49PM PT
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[If it only has some role in protecting our freedom, then freedom cannot last—the role of government is to protect our freedom, not just have some role.] “Yes, but that is the current and historical state of affairs, just as you pointed out “…as we can see happening all through history and continuing today.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:52PM PT
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[That is a contradiction. Immigrants do not take away anyone’s freedom by coming here. We take away theirs by preventing it. A human being has a right to be free—his nature requires it.] “I disagree insofar as immigration is concerned. To the extent that new immigrants, legal or illegal, by their very numbers cause our air to be more polluted (ala Beijing) and our natural resources to be consumed more rapidly or spread more thinly, I believe that most people would feel that their rights and freedom had been infringed. Most are simply too myopic to realize that is what is happening to them and to their country. Frankly, I don’t understand how you can see it any other way. If a criminal harms me or my family, that impairs my freedom to live my life free of harm and free of physical injury and pain. If polluted air impairs my health, that impairs my freedom to live my life free of unnecessary discomfort or illness. If I am unable to heat my home for lack of natural resources, that infringes my freedom to enjoy my home and hearth. If I am a farmer and the demand of cities for water to serve their burgeoning populations prices me out of the market for water, that makes it impossible for me live my life. In summary, Ayn Rand’s denouncement ‘of altruism in favor of rational selfishness’ by definition requires stringent immigration controls. Many ethnocentrists find it necessary to support their brethren among legal immigrants and illegal aliens alike; they like to think of this is as a form of altruism or a humanitarian gesture. They condemn those who, for rational selfish reasons, believe the laws should be enforced and immigration restricted.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:57PM PT
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This seems to give sanction to governments and their functions and to limit the scope of the blessings of liberty to citizens. [No. I don’t see how you arrive at that conclusion. What is limited by the constitution is government power.] “Not very effectively, as you have observed.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 02:59PM PT
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[I agree that we cannot guarantee or be responsible for the lives of people in other countries, but if they want to live in freedom and they arrive on our shores, we cannot deny to them the right to live in freedom.] “They have the right to live in freedom to the extent they can create that kind of environment for themselves. If they cannot, that does not diminish their right to do so but it may mean that they have not yet earned it or paid the price.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 03:00PM PT
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The tyranny of the minority may be described as fascism or communism. [Democracy is the tyranny of the majority.] “I don’t think tyranny of the majority is the right term given the vast protections and influence enjoyed by minorities. Tyranny of the minority is the more likely prospect as we have seen with the rising influence of the Hispanic population.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 03:01PM PT
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What if the majority were to do that? [That is also tyranny.] “Exactly my point. In other words, the current tactics of some minorities is tantamount to tyranny.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 03:02PM PT
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. [How does the majority do that when they do not even understand that freedom isn’t relative--it's about inalienable individual rights.] “A very complicated business at best given the propensity of others to infringe those rights, especially a Congress and a President who are vulnerable to organized special interests more so than to a disorganized and complacent majority.”
Posted by Gordon Johnson on 04/03/2009 @ 03:03PM PT
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Gordon, I cannot further respond to all of the statements in your post since a proper discussion depends on a philosophical understanding of the issues involved.
Please pursue the references to the works of Ayn Rand for a full philosphical explanation of the underlying principles involved for a discussion of any scientific hypothesis.
As my last comment on this subject, in your reference to Greenland you said: "Those samples contained bubbles which enabled the scientists to determine how much carbon dioxide there was in the air during past ages. That evidence tends to indicate that today there is indeed an increase in carbon dioxide at a level that has never been seen in the past."
If that is true than by your argument the lack of carbon dioxide does not explain the warm temperatures that permitted the Vikings to settle there at the end of the tenth century and call it "Greenland."
If you would like to contact me for further discussion of the philosophical issues unrelated to global warming you can email to me at solhls@gmail.com. I think the discussion on this site has gone very far offtrack.
Posted by Henry Solomon on 04/03/2009 @ 03:03PM PT
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Henry said,
[There is no right to preserve one’s life at the expense of someone else—this is a contradiction.]
Gordon said,
“I doubt there is one soldier in the world who would agree with you. This is easy to say if you have never been there and done that.”
Gordon, you have taken my words out of context. I was not talking about war, but life in a free society that respects individual rights. In a free country if you violate a persons rights you forfeit your own claim to those rights. In a proper war you are fighting to preserve your rights from tyranny.
This will have to be my last post since we are way off the subject for this site. You are making many false assumptions about Ayn Rand's philosophy, but if you do not want to read it and understand it by your own independent thinking then there is little point in further discussion.
Posted by Henry Solomon on 04/03/2009 @ 03:55PM PT
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The ethanol experiment, whether well intentioned or not, is causing people to die. Using land to grow fuel, that would have been used to grow food, has caused food prices to rise. People that would have only been hungry in the world are now starving to death.
I do not see meddling in the energy economy, versus free market decisions, as a viable solution to a possible fictitious problem.
Or perhaps people dying is the idea. They will not exhale CO2, drive automobiles, use electricity, or eat meat.
Posted by mike frick on 04/24/2009 @ 12:58PM PT
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emily , can you tell me the temp of the earth 10 million years ago ? how much f the earth was ice ? now another question, since obama took office he has spent 3.4 trillion dollars and he's not done. now with al gore screaming man bear pig and the ridiculas cap and trade tax how much revenue will it bring in annually ? you want a logical debate , here ya go. also , scientists predicted years ago that the temp of the earth will rise because of the sun and i 50 million years the earth will burn to a crisp. can you accept that ? this global warming is a united nations deal and everyone is benefitting moneywise. green house (so called) gas will continue to rise no matter what you do, there are people on this earth that have to breath and go to the bathroom. oh wait , the demolition man had the 3 shells, i forgot. do you understand that you activists want me to live the way you want and do what you do and think the way you think. there are plenty of scientists that save that global warming isnt what many of the union of concerned scientists are saying. so who's telling the truth ?
Posted by steve brandt on 04/25/2009 @ 12:18AM PT
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Steve, I do my best to highlight science news in a way that's both fair and accurate.
But I cannot force a reader to educate himself or herself on how to distinguish between the credibility and validity of different scientific opinions. Or how to judge the relevance of different scientific facts and theories to our present day situation.
That's up to you.
Since you ask directly: The ones who are telling the truth are the ones who acknowledge that global warming is a present danger and a future threat, on a massive scale, to humanity's health, prosperity, and well-being, such that we need to take immediate and effective action to slow it down.
(That doesn't mean that *everyone* who says otherwise is lying. Some are misinterpreting the data. Some aren't qualified to interpret the data. And probably a very, very few have valid observations about the data that differ from other valid observations; their ideas warrant further study.)
That leaves the rest of the people who say global warming isn't a problem. They are, in fact, lying.)
Things might not play out as badly as some of the science suggests, over the next 25-90 years. That would be great. But they might be that bad, by the same token. They might be worse.
We just don't know how bad it's going to be. And that argues for being truly conservative now -- for eliminating our risk-taking behaviors.
At best we avert the worst-case scenarios about wild weather fluctuations (hot and cold), loss of arable land, coastal flooding that displaces millions and costs billions in damage to infrastructure, wildlife extinctions, etc.
At worst -- well, at worst we've stopped polluting the air. Dumping toxins into our bodies and into the land and water. And we're no longer yoking ourselves to energy sources that are limited in quantity; inherently polluting; and profiting a relative few at the expense of many.
So changing how we generate energy and make things now will be a win-win.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/25/2009 @ 11:09AM PT
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thank you emily for an honest reply. yes , we just dont know !! but you have al gore standing in front of people saying the world is coming to an end. that has got to stop. the man is a hippocrite by all means and purposes. he is a politican !!and a mad one for lossing the presidental election( my opinion) he make your movement look far worse than it it. i do believe because of population growth that some things need to change but not the way al gore and so other poiliticans want to because it now beomes a money maker called taxes. if alternative energy is to become economical and useful it has to be more well thought out than it is. my gosh emily.. 10 to 20 acres of land for solar development !! taking away land for solar energy when in fact the lack of trees to clean the air ! please emily tell me i'm dreaming. obama wants all this alyern energy forced down our throats without thinking the repercussions and al gore is sitting right there filling his head full of the man bear pig syndrome. al gore wants everyone to think he is the world savior !! if things are to work we work together. the united nations themselves are getting involved in making world wide order !! thats total looneissy !! it's like socialism or communism. you do what i want or what i want to do or else.. TAX TAX TAX !! i'm not stupid , crazy or unfair. i live on this earth and i need my room like you. my life is short and i want to be happy too. but the way it's theres a big line between those that do and those that dont. and by george you step on my toes and i'm gonna give you a kick. it's all out of control and truth in a lot of cases and al gore is the biggest problem !!
Posted by steve brandt on 04/25/2009 @ 11:36AM PT
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Steve, Al Gore is just one guy. He tends to frame his arguments using the worst case scenarios.
This turns some people off, fine. But he's not the issue. Global warming is the issue.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/25/2009 @ 03:25PM PT
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Emily,
Does it really serve your purposes to call those that do not believe in AGW, but do believe in GW liers? It is an automatically inflamitory term. And, it is not very scientific. Some scientists were preaching global cooling when I was in high school, and now some are just as convinced that we are responsable for global warming. This debate is healthy. To stifle the debate by calling the theories that do do agree with yours lies indicates that you are not interested in the facts. And instead, you are just caught up in the heat of the moment, and not willing to change your opinion based on silly things like facts.
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 04/25/2009 @ 11:58AM PT
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Liars:
"For more than a decade the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing industries with profits tied to fossil fuels, led an aggressive lobbying and public relations campaign against the idea that emissions of heat-trapping gases could lead to global warming...
"But a document filed in a federal lawsuit demonstrates that even as the coalition worked to sway opinion, its own scientific and technical experts were advising that the science backing the role of greenhouse gases in global warming could not be refuted."
-- Andrew Revkin, The New York Times, April 24, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/science/earth/24deny.hml
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/25/2009 @ 03:33PM PT
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Emily,
Also, you said: "And probably a very, very few have valid observations about the data that differ from other valid observations; their ideas warrant further study."
The following petition has been signed by over 31,000 American scientists. I guess by very, very few you meant more than 30 thousand?
-----------------------------
Global warming petition
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.
http://www.petitionproject.org/
[This petition is a thoroughly discredited piece of hokum. - Emily]
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 04/25/2009 @ 12:11PM PT
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How is a simply written statement, with such clear meaning, signed by many scientists, "hokum"? How can you discredit a petition? You may choose to disagree with their beliefs. But, again you call them insincere, when their only dereliction is that they disagree with you, and not that they are unqualified to interpret the data.
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 04/25/2009 @ 06:22PM PT
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Well, no, it's not that I disagree with "them." There's no real them to disagree with.
When judging these types of things, on their merits, consider what the source is.
The institutions and groups affirming that human-caused global warming is a problem include some of the world's most reputable. When scientists sign on to reports from these bodies, they include information about themselves -- their specialties, where the work.
At the incept of this petition, the qualifications of the signatories, overall, were questionable. (more below) Although there are a lot more names purported to be signatories today, it's hard to know who they are exactly, because no affiliations are listed. It's very opaque, which is not a hallmark of scientifically reputable materials.
According to the petition site, for instance, "12,711 [people with bachelor of science] or equivalent academic degrees" have signed this petition.
My bachelor's degree was in Political Science, with a minor in Soviet and East European Studies. It didn't qualify me to be a diplomatic envoy, or negotiate goings-on of the Cold War, just because it has the words "political" and "Soviet" in it.
This petition, which has been circulating in some form since the late 1990's, is being perpetuated by an otherwise-obscure group called the "Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine."
In 2001, when Scientific American took a random sample of 30 of the then-1,400 signatories to the petition "claiming to hold a Ph.D. in a climate-related science," it found that:
"Of the 26 we were able to identify in various databases, 11 said they still agreed with the petition —- one was an active climate researcher, two others had relevant expertise, and eight signed based on an informal evaluation. Six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember any such petition, one had died, and five did not answer repeated messages. Crudely extrapolating, the petition supporters include a core of about 200 climate researchers – a respectable number, though rather a small fraction of the climatological community."
In 2007, the OISM made a stab at reviving the petition by re-circulating what was largely the same error-ridden, non-peer-reviewed paper that it circulated in the 1990s. An actual climate scientist recounts this much experience and the problems with the "research" better than I can, at the Real Climate blog.
So, the science, such as it is, was bad then and still is. The signatories are a bunch of names with no other information about who they are and why they are qualified to sign on. There's no there there, and no them there either.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/26/2009 @ 02:07PM PT
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Great answer Emily. To bad is only addresses the supposed lack of qualifications of the people that have signed the petition. The real issue here is that you call them liars. Whether or not they are qualified, or have changed their mind, does not in any way, shape, or form make them insincere or liars. Your automatic dismissal of all descent as "liars" shows your lack on sincerity in this discussion.
And following your own logic: The bulk of the people on this web site that agree with AGW are not "qualified to interpret the data", including yourself.
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 04/26/2009 @ 04:42PM PT
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Interesting semantic ploys, Chris.
Here's what I posted, above:
"Since you ask directly: The ones who are telling the truth are the ones who acknowledge that global warming is a present danger and a future threat, on a massive scale, to humanity's health, prosperity, and well-being, such that we need to take immediate and effective action to slow it down.
That doesn't mean that *everyone* who says otherwise is lying. Some are misinterpreting the data. Some aren't qualified to interpret the data. And probably a very, very few have valid observations about the data that differ from other valid observations; their ideas warrant further study.
That leaves the rest of the people who say global warming isn't a problem. They are, in fact, lying."
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/27/2009 @ 07:13AM PT
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emily , what about the ones that are over doing it like al gore ? who does know exactly the truth. just as sciebtists have studied mcdonalds food , one says it's bad , another says it's good or meds, take this for your blood pressure but it has affects that can cause death. scientists are educated guessers. they have been proven wrong many times. the fact is , people are out to make money off this and al gore is one. the earth is going to warm no matter what and you have scientists saying this and that.... they are making educated guesses.in 10 , 20 , 30 years from now it could get colder too. who can predict even the weather 100% ???????????
Posted by steve brandt on 04/27/2009 @ 07:25AM PT
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1. Climate and weather are not the same thing. Weather is what's happening right now; climate is what's happening over the course of a decade or three, or a century.
2. I was not aware that it was a bad thing, in America, to make money from a good business idea.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/27/2009 @ 07:46AM PT
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thank you emily , you answered my question . how can you predict accurately 30 -50 years when you cant predict the weather day by day. those future models they are trying to pass as the truth are no more accurate as predicting the weather day by day or for tomorrow let alone 30 years from now. those climate models(predictions) do not have no more than a 50/50 accuracy .
Posted by steve brandt on 04/27/2009 @ 08:02AM PT
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thank you emily , you answered my question . how can you predict accurately 30 -50 years when you cant predict the weather day by day. those future models they are trying to pass as the truth are no more accurate as predicting the weather day by day or for tomorrow let alone 30 years from now. those climate models(predictions) do not have no more than a 50/50 accuracy . ideass are one thing but a scam is another. you know if al gore was so devoted to this save energy , save the world why is it he uses more electricity than average , flys all over and has a big boat ? the guy lives high off the hog while the whole time people send him money and give him peace prizes etc...
emily , i'm not saying what your doing is wrong and i hope you dont say what i do is wrong either. if what you do is your bag thats great. but dont get tunnel visioned by thinking people who think the way you do is all right and not wrong in ways and visa versa. what about these meteor strikes that are predicted ? how about volcanoes and earth quakes... what about this flu going around or germ warfare ? what about.. well what about life itself... can someone guarantee it ?
Posted by steve brandt on 04/27/2009 @ 08:09AM PT
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Hmmm,
Emily, your re-posting of your prior response just reinforces my objection to the word "liar". Let me try again to express why there is no appreciation for its use in this context.
Your group breakdown logic:
Truth Tellers;
1)"ones who acknowledge that global warming is a present danger"
2)"a very, very few [who] have valid observations about the data that differ from other valid observations" that are "qualified to interpret the data."
Liars:
1) "the rest of the people who say global warming isn't a problem."
Conclusions from your logic:
1) Sincere unqualified people that believe in AGW; Honest
2) Sincere qualified people that believe in AGW; Honest
3) Sincere qualified people that don't believe in AGW; Honest
4) Sincere unqualified people that don't believe in AGW; Liars
So, apparently, in your mind, just because someone is unqualified to make a knowledgeable decision, AND they don't believe in AGW, that makes them a liar. That is cruel logic, that leaves those that honestly disagree with you automatically insulted, and your conclusions about their integrity incorrect.
In fact, the only real liars would be those that are qualified and still forwarding conclusions that are not backed by science. The rest honestly believe the conclusions they have made, based on their ability to understand the data.
P.S. It's no semantic ploy to point out that, by your own admissions, you are not qualified to decide if man is or isn't responsible for GW. You have been quite clear about that.
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 04/27/2009 @ 11:41AM PT
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As I wrote recently to Mr. Brandt, I can only take you, the reader, so far in grasping how to judge the relative worth of different sources of opinion and information. The final steps are up to you.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/27/2009 @ 12:04PM PT
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I just realized another conclusion based on your provided logic paths:
The only honest opinion that an unqualified person can affirm, is that they do not know. Since the person pushing their opinion knows they are not qualified, offering any other conclusion is dishonest.
Posted by Chris Deckrow on 04/27/2009 @ 12:14PM PT
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EMILY , THE EARTH IS GONNA WARM NO MATTER WHAT. IT'S been happening for millions of years and it's cooled.. thats fact , yea , gore is one goof ball i agree. but he reflects craziness. forcing things down peoples throat over speculation and you even said it.. no one knows for sure . i'm not saying dont stop finding alternative energy. my god , back it the early 70's the earth was running out of oil. you want to be an activist fine, rally the gov to spend money on research rather than throwing money every where else they shouldnt. and no , that petition is not hokum.. it's just as much as real as your petition to shut the plant down so you can stop global warming as the activists claim. see , you believe your scientists but not the ones that go along with your beliefs. right there shows why wars start. you either do it my way or you'll pay for it !! when gov gets in it for taxes and money it's time to speak up. this obama administrations says we'll put people to work.. then they need to shut the heck up and instead of paying back people in pork spending and lobby money. put it where it belongs. this government is so corrupt today it aint funny. you respect me and i respect you.. just dont make me pay for something i dont believe in.
Posted by steve brandt on 04/25/2009 @ 03:46PM PT
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emily , this website says "stop global warming". why dont it say understand global warming ? if you reread your posts and others, it's all about controlling global warming. just a thought .
Posted by steve brandt on 04/27/2009 @ 08:13AM PT
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I often use the phrase "curbing global warming" because yes, unfortunately (and frightingly), there's a certain momentum of warming that can't be stopped, now, due to the amount of carbon dioxide that's built up in the atmosphere and the oceans.
But "stopping global warming" is still the ultimate goal -- stop adding to the problem. And probably more and more, people are going to looking for biotechnology and geo-engineering solutions to that latent CO2.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/27/2009 @ 12:12PM PT
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This post is several months old, and it's difficult to split my time between this conversation and the more current posts and conversations. So I'm closing this discussion to further comments.
Thank you all for participating here.
Posted by Emily Gertz on 04/27/2009 @ 12:15PM PT
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