Roger, you're asking some good questions.  Part of your next steps are to sort out what's relevant information to the situation of human-propelled global warming, and what isn't. 

Approaching this in geological rather than human time frames obscures the immediate issues. A trend that will take millennia to crest does not have a lot of relevance in an immediate sense - say one to five centuries out -- than trends recorded over the past 10, 20, and 100 years.  

And that trend is a net increase in the surface temperature of the Earth, at an unnaturally rapid rate.  

And also, what you're terming a "few degrees" (that is, insignificant) is the difference between life and death for many species; the difference between different climate and habitat zones that support very different sorts of ecosystems, as well as human crops and livestock; etc.  

The Arctic is more sensitive.  Air surface temperatures in the Arctic are projected to rise in excess of 4 deg. C between around 1980 and 2100.  That's 4 x 1.8 deg. F...a pretty extreme change in temperature in a very short time, for a region that was stable for millennia, and one that has a big impact on the climate of the northern hemisphere.  

In a few decades, I and my fellow New Yorkers are going to be very wistful for the Arctic cold fronts that would sweep southward, and cool off the early summer heat.

Emily, I appreciate your comments about sorting out relevant information.   Yes the time-frames are long, but the timing is current. Remember that "the crest" occurred a long time ago and we're been getting colder ever since.  It may explain why the earth temperature has dropped since 1998 and are level with 1988, while CO2 level have gone up. When I use the phrase " a few degrees" I have to admit, I don't really know what increase I'm talking about.  The accepted models are failing empirical tests.  The prediction you made about arctic temperatures, is one of these models.  So; really no-one is accurately predicting temprature.  Why, despite the models and predictions, did the ice cap just get bigger, not smaller.   Let's re-look at the models, and get them right.   Have a look at the extent of the ice caps 10,000 years ago.  Also have a look at the Vostok ice core records to see how quickly the change happens and where we are now in the cycle.  Get the extended graphs, or the raw data, if you can. Drops of several degrees can happen in a few decades.  I'm either right or wrong; no amount of lobbying will change the process.  If I'm wrong and the planet warms there will be massive consequences affecting millions, but life does flourish in the warmth.  But if I'm right, think of the consequences.  The death of maybe 2 - 3 billion people maybe more, wars like we have never seen before, and the complete loss of our civilisation.

Roger, the Earth's surface temperature is not getting colder.

There are year-to-year ups and downs, sometimes quite sharp.  

But when global temperatures are averaged out over time, the surface temperature has risen by nearly 0.8 deg. C. in the past century.  See NASA's findings on this trend, for instance.

In the Arctic, temperatures have already increased around three times as much as in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, over the past century.  

And whatever gains the Arctic ice cap made this year, overall it's decreased in size about 34% since 1979.  In short,  human influences are pretty much reversing the geological cooling trend.  

In an example of of "you can use the numbers to show anything" I'll say that the USNew article and Kaufman's report confirms what I'm saying.  The earth is cooling.  He plots 1,600 years and shows higher temperatures than today.  We know it was even warmer before that.  The wobbles (as described by Kaufman) have caused the earth to cool by over 2C in the last 6,000 years.   These wobbles are powerful and unstoppable cycles, creating massive climate swings.  The climate fluctuations over the last thousand years are just ripples on a bigger curve. 

Worthy questions:"Where in this cooling cycle are we?"  "What happenned at this point in previous cooling cycles?" "What was the earth like 8,000 and 6,000 years ago when it was hotter than now?"  "If human influences are reversing the cooling trend, what could happen if we stopped?" "Is there a point past which we can't hold back  a minus 12C cooling cycle?"

All interesting questions, but somewhat abstract relative to current climate change, since a) human activities have changed the climate, so that has to be added as a factor alongside natural cycles and variations; and b) barring some sort of incredible geo-engineering intervention, we'll be seeing rising surface temperatures for well over a century to come, thanks to all the latent heat built up in the oceans.  

I'm not fully fluent with the scientific literature, but there may be some answers to your paleo-climate questions already out there.  Check out RealClimate.org, which is written by climate scientists.

Kaufman's own conclusion is that human actions have averted any overall cooling trend in coming centuries.  So you can use the numbers to show anything (in science this is called "torturing the data"), or you can be intellectually honest.

Good luck with your investigations.